Skip to main content Skip to page footer

Estimating car emissions with new algorithms to promote ecological transition

An innovative system that measures emissions based on driving style and promotes more sustainable mobility without forcing people to change vehicles

Cars in a jam
Publish date

How to reduce vehicle emissions without necessarily having to change cars? A new monitoring system, developed by the Politecnico di Milano and described in a study published in the international journal Scientific Reports, offers a concrete answer, making sustainable mobility accessible to all. 

The proposed methodology uses a virtual sensing system to estimate carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, with precision and with very simple instrumentation, overcoming the limits of the Euro classification alone.

The methodology offers a concrete answer to those who want to do their part in sustainability without having to change vehicles immediately. This means sustainable mobility for all.

Silvia Strada, Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, first author of the study

Thanks to the use of small telematics devices, equipped with GPS for localization and inertial unit for measuring accelerations, the system detects emissions based on real driving behaviour. Using a large database of data collected from over 8,000 private vehicles equipped with black boxes in Italy and analysed for over 11 million trips, the algorithms calculate the real environmental impact of each vehicle. UnipolTech, the telematics arm of the Unipol Group, provided a unique dataset in terms of accuracy and breadth, with information on speed, distances travelled and driving style, which made it possible to validate the proposed algorithms.

The system uses three main performance indicators (KPIs): fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions and NOx emissions. These KPIs show that emissions and consumption depend not only on vehicle technology, but also on driving behaviour, allowing for a personalized estimation of environmental impact. For example, there is a green speed, i.e. an optimal speed range between 50-75 km/h, which is more efficient in terms of both consumption and emissions. 

This monitoring system has numerous potential applications for cities: administrations can use it to manage emissions in restricted traffic areas, adjusting access and parking fees based on the actual environmental impact of vehicles, without prohibiting beforehand anyone from driving. In addition, the indicators could support incentives for those who adopt virtuous driving styles, while respecting the technological neutrality of the car. 

In a context of sustainable transition, the European Union has set ambitious goals: to reduce transport emissions by 90% by 2050, as envisaged by the Green Deal. This system directly addresses this need, making accessible and fair monitoring possible even for those who, at the moment, cannot invest in zero-emission vehicles.

Empowering drivers to manage, learn and improve their environmental impact opens up an inclusive transition to sustainability.

The new approach shows that an older vehicle can still be sustainable, if driven carefully and for limited distances, thus challenging the current paradigm based on Euro classes alone.  

This system is now a concrete tool for those who want to drive more responsibly and for cities that aim to reduce emissions. The proposed emission estimation algorithms can constitute an essential basis for sustainable mobility, contributing to a more inclusive and less impactful management of urban mobility and beyond.

The study online